Can You Hit A Ball Out Of TopGolf? Simulations And Real Data

Quick summary:

  • It is very difficult to hit a ball over the net at Top Golf
  • For you, me, and anyone you know who is a long hitter, no shot.
  • For anyone you know who plays professional golf, no.
  • For a long-hitting pro golfer, from the top floor, using a ball superior to a TopGolf ball, it’s very plausible.
  • For a competition-level long driver, it’s very likely.
  • Below is an example of the model – many more included under ‘Results’

Assumptions:

  • TopGolf dimensions are 250 yards to the back of the net, which is 150 feet tall
  • These are perfectly straight drives and all spin is backspin
  • We are hitting TopGolf balls, unless specified otherwise – I apply a penalty to ball speed, launch °, and spin as described below
  • We are at sea level, unless specified otherwise
  • TopGolf balls have similar aerodynamics to regular balls

 

Methods and reasoning:

  • I am using OptimalFlight, a model created by Todd M. Kos of Quality Golf Stats, to model flight based on input trajectory parameters
  • A polynomial regression was used to fit these trajectories to a polynomial function, and this regression function was solved for f(x) when x = 250. The input x being distance, and f(x) returning the ball’s altitude (in yards) at that distance. TopGolf nets measure 50 yards high at 250 yards, so if f(250) > 50, the ball will clear the net
  • This polynomial regression step was because I couldn’t figure out how to pull the function out of the ball flight model, however our fit line’s r² was 1.00000 so I am not losing any sleep over it

TopGolf balls do not behave the same as regular golf balls. Based on Trackman 4 data I reported here, off driver the ball speed is 4.6% lower, launch is 6.1% lower, and spin is 28.6% higher. These data match my anecdotal experience at TopGolf (I’m not a walking launch monitor but I can tell spin was high and speeds were down a bit). Simulations will be ran using these modified numbers, as these changes in trajectory have a quite significant impact on distance, apex, and the potential to knock one out of TopGolf.

It’s unclear what the dimensions of an average TopGolf are. Some sources describe length as 215 yards, some say 240, some say 250, and some imply 267. With the lack of clarity I’ll assume 250, which is one of the more commonly reported figures online. Most sources agree on a 150 foot fence height. One source quoted a TopGolf spokeswoman at a 170 fence height.

 

An example of the average PGA Tour driver’s parameters being modeled into a trajectory using OptimalFlight.
Solving the polynomial fit to our model’s ball flight, where f(250) returns the ball’s altitude in yards at 250 yards distance. For this shot, it was approx 19.1 yards, which does not clear the 50 yard net.

Results:

Average male golfer (14.5 handicap):

  • Average male data from Trackman.
  • Ball speed: 132.6 mph →126.5 mph with TopGolf ball
  • Spin: 3275 rpm → 4212 rpm
  • Launch: 12.6° → 11.8°
  • Doesn’t even make it to the net so I didn’t waste my time with a polynomial regression or drawing a net on this graph.
His ball never even makes it to the net. Good effort though!!

Average female LPGA Tour driver:

Average male PGA Tour driver:

His ball intercepts the net at 10.0 yards. It would have carried 263.2 had its flight not been obstructed (remember – this model uses a TopGolf ball)

 

Typical / good drive from Rory McIlroy:

  • As of March 12th, 2023, Rory’s average driver ball speed in competition is 184.6 mph. In 2017 Rory tweeted his launch monitor numbers, including a ball speed of 184.1 mph, so I think this is a good enough approximation of his current average. This likely represents a better than average strike given the carry and total.
  • Ball speed: 184.1 mph → 175.6 mph with TopGolf ball
  • Spin: 2523 rpm → 3245 rpm
  • Launch: 12.5° → 11.7°
  • His ball intercepts the net at 34.1 yards of height. The first to threaten it!
  • This shot would have carried 297.9 had its flight been unobstructed. Had it been a normal ball rather than a TopGolf ball, this carry would have been 320-330 at sea level.

 

OK, What if Rory brought a TP5x or ProV1 to TopGolf and hit that, and he’s also on the 3rd floor??

  • Same input parameters as above, I just did not apply the speed / spin / launch penalties of a TopGolf ball
  • 184.1 mph, 2523 rpm, 12.5° launch
  • I made the assumption that the hitting surface of the top deck is 30 feet from the ground level. It may be higher but I do not have any numbers on this.
  • Just mere inches short!
Just a hair short of the 50 yd / 150 foot net! As a reminder, the graphic of the net is just a quick addition in Photoshop – the true answer comes from solving our polynomial regression for f(250), which in this case was 49.9 yards.

Great strike from 2022 World Long Drive Champion, Martin Borgmeier:

 

So can you hit a ball out of TopGolf? The answer is yes, if you are a world champion-level long driver of the ball–  OR an extremely long hitter who:

  • A) brings their own balls to TopGolf (this is probably banned, if not criminal)
  • B) hits from the top floor
  • C) plays at high altitude,
  • or likely a combination of at least 2 of these

 

 

 

2 thoughts on “Can You Hit A Ball Out Of TopGolf? Simulations And Real Data”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *